Forecasting is getting trickier. Weather. Financial markets. Consumer trends. You name it. External forces seem to have more velocity.
This week, my heart went out to my friends and colleagues living on the east coast. I came across this wonderful post about the uncertainty inherent in prediction. It ends with a Hippocratic Oath that made me wish there was such a thing for marketers.
~ I will remember that I didn’t make the world, and it doesn’t satisfy my equations.
~ Though I will use models boldly to estimate value, I will not be overly impressed by mathematics.
~ I will never sacrifice reality for elegance without explaining why I have done so.
~ Nor will I give the people who use my model false comfort about its accuracy. Instead, I will make explicit its assumptions and oversights.
~ I understand that my work may have enormous effects on society and the economy, many of them beyond my comprehension.